673 research outputs found

    Making Good on LSTMs' Unfulfilled Promise

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    LSTMs promise much to financial time-series analysis, temporal and cross-sectional inference, but we find that they do not deliver in a real-world financial management task. We examine an alternative called Continual Learning (CL), a memory-augmented approach, which can provide transparent explanations, i.e. which memory did what and when. This work has implications for many financial applications including credit, time-varying fairness in decision making and more. We make three important new observations. Firstly, as well as being more explainable, time-series CL approaches outperform LSTMs as well as a simple sliding window learner using feed-forward neural networks (FFNN). Secondly, we show that CL based on a sliding window learner (FFNN) is more effective than CL based on a sequential learner (LSTM). Thirdly, we examine how real-world, time-series noise impacts several similarity approaches used in CL memory addressing. We provide these insights using an approach called Continual Learning Augmentation (CLA) tested on a complex real-world problem, emerging market equities investment decision making. CLA provides a test-bed as it can be based on different types of time-series learners, allowing testing of LSTM and FFNN learners side by side. CLA is also used to test several distance approaches used in a memory recall-gate: Euclidean distance (ED), dynamic time warping (DTW), auto-encoders (AE) and a novel hybrid approach, warp-AE. We find that ED under-performs DTW and AE but warp-AE shows the best overall performance in a real-world financial task

    First-order logic learning in artificial neural networks

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    Artificial Neural Networks have previously been applied in neuro-symbolic learning to learn ground logic program rules. However, there are few results of learning relations using neuro-symbolic learning. This paper presents the system PAN, which can learn relations. The inputs to PAN are one or more atoms, representing the conditions of a logic rule, and the output is the conclusion of the rule. The symbolic inputs may include functional terms of arbitrary depth and arity, and the output may include terms constructed from the input functors. Symbolic inputs are encoded as an integer using an invertible encoding function, which is used in reverse to extract the output terms. The main advance of this system is a convention to allow construction of Artificial Neural Networks able to learn rules with the same power of expression as first order definite clauses. The system is tested on three examples and the results are discussed
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